Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506

September 16, 202122 counties in Nebraska; 8 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 16, 2021, 8:16 PM CDT for 22 counties in Nebraska; 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 16, 2021, 8:16 PM CDT (01:16 UTC)
Expired
Sep 17, 2021, 2:05 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 30 counties

Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Grant County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 16, 8:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFCherry39 min
Sep 16, 8:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLBFBlaine, Custer, Hooker, Lincoln, Logan, McPherson and 1 more55 min
Sep 16, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDCharles Mix, Gregory25 min
Sep 16, 11:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDBon Homme, Charles Mix, Hutchinson, Yankton29 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-09-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1601 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 00:00Z on 2021-09-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1601 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2561 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

341 
WWUS20 KWNS 170114
SEL6  
SPC WW 170114
NEZ000-SDZ000-170800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
815 PM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and western Nebraska
  Southern South Dakota

* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 815 PM
  until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Growing clusters of thunderstorms on either side of a
slow-moving cold front should pose a severe hail/wind threat, as
they access a strengthening low-level jet, and move east-
northeastward across the watch area tonight.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Mullen NE to 30 miles northeast of Oneill NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24030.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 16, 7:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Box Butte, Boyd, Brown, Cherry, Garden and 10 more2 hr
Sep 16, 7:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuffalo, Custer, Dawson, Keith, Lincoln, Logan and 4 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.