Alert archive / New Jersey / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497

September 13, 20216 counties in New Jersey; 6 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 13, 2021, 7:44 PM EDT for 6 counties in New Jersey; 6 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 13, 2021, 7:44 PM EDT (23:44 UTC)
Expired
Sep 14, 2021, 12:12 AM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 13, 8:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICarbon, Monroe44 min
Sep 13, 8:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne22 min
Sep 13, 8:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren49 min
Sep 13, 9:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren57 min
Sep 13, 9:12 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Warren114 min
Sep 13, 9:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Somerset, Warren38 min
Sep 13, 9:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex, Morris, Somerset38 min
Sep 13, 9:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset52 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 325 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 133 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
325 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-257 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1152 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

195 
WWUS20 KWNS 132341
SEL7  
SPC WW 132341
NJZ000-PAZ000-140500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern New Jersey
  Eastern Pennsylvania

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 745 PM
  until 100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms upshear over
north-central/northeastern PA may produce damaging/severe gusts and
large hail as it moves across the watch area, before weakening near
the Atlantic Coast.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 25
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Allentown PA to 20 miles northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 496...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29035.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 12, 10:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCErie4 hr
Sep 13, 12:26 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSusquehanna94 min
Sep 13, 4:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCameron, Clinton, Elk, Erie, Forest, McKean and 2 more2 hr
Sep 13, 5:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia and 14 more3 hr
Sep 13, 7:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarbon, Centre, Clearfield, Columbia, Jefferson, Luzerne and 5 more113 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.