Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496

September 13, 202120 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 13, 2021, 5:53 PM EDT for 20 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 13, 2021, 5:53 PM EDT (21:53 UTC)
Expired
Sep 13, 2021, 8:54 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Elk County, PA, Forest County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Venango County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 13, 5:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango46 min
Sep 13, 6:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming47 min
Sep 13, 6:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZClarion, Forest, Jefferson31 min
Sep 13, 7:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lycoming, Sullivan57 min
Sep 13, 8:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Montour, Schuylkill48 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1305 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

948 
WWUS20 KWNS 132150
SEL6  
SPC WW 132150
PAZ000-140500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern and central Pennsylvania

* Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 550 PM
  until 100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A growing cluster of thunderstorms in northwestern PA may
continue to expand and organize as it moves east-southeastward down
a frontal zone, offering damaging to severe gusts and sporadic large
hail.  Isolated severe hail/gusts also are possible from
thunderstorms ahead of the main cluster, also on either side of the
front.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of
Franklin PA to 35 miles east southeast of Williamsport PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29045.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 12, 10:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCErie4 hr
Sep 13, 12:26 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSusquehanna94 min
Sep 13, 4:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCameron, Clinton, Elk, Erie, Forest, McKean and 2 more2 hr
Sep 13, 7:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarbon, Centre, Clearfield, Columbia, Jefferson, Luzerne and 5 more113 min
Sep 13, 7:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBucks, Carbon, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.