Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 24, 2021, 3:16 PM EDT for 46 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 2021, 3:16 PM EDT (19:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 46 counties
Alcona County, MI, Allegan County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 3:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac | 29 min |
| Jul 24, 3:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Gladwin | 54 min |
| Jul 24, 3:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland | 67 min |
| Jul 24, 4:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland, Saginaw | 57 min |
| Jul 24, 4:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Huron | 67 min |
| Jul 24, 4:26 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Huron | 37 min |
| Jul 24, 4:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola | 53 min |
| Jul 24, 4:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Gratiot | 52 min |
| Jul 24, 4:46 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Saginaw | 44 min |
| Jul 24, 4:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Genesee, Saginaw, Shiawassee | 63 min |
| Jul 24, 5:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee, Lapeer, Tuscola | 64 min |
| Jul 24, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Tuscola | 36 min |
| Jul 24, 5:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Sanilac | 37 min |
| Jul 24, 5:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Allegan, Barry, Kent, Ottawa | 55 min |
| Jul 24, 6:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Shiawassee | 54 min |
| Jul 24, 6:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee, Lapeer | 64 min |
| Jul 24, 6:21 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Genesee | 22 min |
| Jul 24, 6:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lapeer | 62 min |
| Jul 24, 6:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clinton, Eaton, Ingham | 62 min |
| Jul 24, 7:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Eaton, Ingham | 43 min |
| Jul 24, 7:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Livingston, Oakland | 80 min |
| Jul 24, 7:52 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Macomb | 22 min |
| Jul 24, 7:56 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Oakland | 26 min |
| Jul 24, 8:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Macomb | 59 min |
| Jul 24, 8:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Macomb, Saint Clair | 12 min |
| Jul 24, 8:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Calhoun | 38 min |
| Jul 24, 8:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw, Wayne | 76 min |
| Jul 24, 8:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Jackson | 34 min |
| Jul 24, 8:45 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | DTX | Macomb, Oakland | 4 hr |
| Jul 24, 8:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lenawee, Washtenaw | 55 min |
| Jul 24, 8:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Monroe | 77 min |
| Jul 24, 8:59 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | DTX | Wayne | 4 hr |
| Jul 24, 9:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 16 min |
| Jul 24, 9:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lenawee | 44 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 588 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -27 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 557 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted.
485 WWUS20 KWNS 241913 SEL0 SPC WW 241913 MIZ000-LHZ000-250200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Lower Michigan Lake Huron * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will move across the watch area this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east of Oscoda MI to 35 miles west of Grand Rapids MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 11:44 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Clare, Crawford and 16 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 24, 2:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Bay, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Clare and 29 more | 114 min |
| Jul 24, 4:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Berrien, Branch, Cass, Hillsdale, Saint Joseph | 6 hr |
| Jul 24, 6:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch and 32 more | 114 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.