Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384

Issued

Jul 20, 2021, 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC)

Expired

Jul 20, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

5%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

2%

Ten or more severe wind reports

60%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

30%

Ten or more severe hail reports

20%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

10%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1319 Severe potential...watch possibleJul 20, 1:03 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1320 Severe thunderstorm watch 384Jul 20, 4:17 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1321 Severe thunderstorm watch 384Jul 20, 7:12 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1322 Severe thunderstorm watch 384Jul 20, 10:01 PM EDT

199 
WWUS20 KWNS 201900
SEL4  
SPC WW 201900
NYZ000-VTZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-210300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Much of New York
  Vermont
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A well-organized line of thunderstorms is moving across
southeast Ontario, and will affect the watch area this afternoon and
evening.  Other more isolated storms will also form ahead of the
line, posing additional severe threat.  Damaging winds are the main
risk, but hail is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Saranac
Lake NY to 35 miles south southeast of Syracuse NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.

...Hart

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.