Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 8, 2021, 3:38 PM MDT for 21 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 8, 2021, 3:38 PM MDT (21:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 8, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 3 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 21 counties
Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND
The radar
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 60%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 70%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 60%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 4:00 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Divide, Williams | 60 min |
| Jul 8, 4:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Williams | 54 min |
| Jul 8, 4:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Slope | 52 min |
| Jul 8, 4:51 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Bowman | 54 min |
| Jul 8, 4:53 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McKenzie, Williams | 37 min |
| Jul 8, 5:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McKenzie, Williams | 47 min |
| Jul 8, 5:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Bowman, Slope | 62 min |
| Jul 8, 5:38 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McKenzie | 37 min |
| Jul 8, 5:51 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, Stark | 54 min |
| Jul 8, 5:52 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, Dunn, McKenzie | 68 min |
| Jul 8, 6:11 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, McKenzie | 64 min |
| Jul 8, 6:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail | 61 min |
| Jul 8, 6:29 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Bowman | 33 min |
| Jul 8, 6:44 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, Dunn, Stark | 61 min |
| Jul 8, 6:50 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Billings, Dunn, McKenzie | 55 min |
| Jul 8, 8:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Hettinger, Stark | 59 min |
| Jul 8, 8:42 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Adams, Grant, Hettinger | 63 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -299 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 873 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
070
WWUS20 KWNS 082123
SEL3
SPC WW 082123
NDZ000-090400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms developing in Montana will spread into
western North Dakota through the remainder of this afternoon and
into late evening. A mix of clusters and supercells will pose a
threat for very large hail (near the size of baseballs), significant
outflow gusts (near 75 mph), and the possibility of a tornado or two
with the strongest supercells this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Minot ND to 15 miles west of Lemmon SD. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...WW 351...WW 352...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
33025.
...ThompsonSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more | 86 min |
| Jul 8, 4:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn and 10 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.