Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353

July 8, 202121 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 8, 2021, 3:38 PM MDT for 21 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2021, 3:38 PM MDT (21:38 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 21 counties

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
60%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 4:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISDivide, Williams60 min
Jul 8, 4:36 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISWilliams54 min
Jul 8, 4:38 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISSlope52 min
Jul 8, 4:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISAdams, Bowman54 min
Jul 8, 4:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcKenzie, Williams37 min
Jul 8, 5:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcKenzie, Williams47 min
Jul 8, 5:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISAdams, Bowman, Slope62 min
Jul 8, 5:38 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcKenzie37 min
Jul 8, 5:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISBillings, Stark54 min
Jul 8, 5:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISBillings, Dunn, McKenzie68 min
Jul 8, 6:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISBillings, McKenzie64 min
Jul 8, 6:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISDunn, McKenzie, Mountrail61 min
Jul 8, 6:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISAdams, Bowman33 min
Jul 8, 6:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISBillings, Dunn, Stark61 min
Jul 8, 6:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISBillings, Dunn, McKenzie55 min
Jul 8, 8:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISHettinger, Stark59 min
Jul 8, 8:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISAdams, Grant, Hettinger63 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2021-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 10 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2021-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 75 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-299 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
873 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

070 
WWUS20 KWNS 082123
SEL3  
SPC WW 082123
NDZ000-090400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 353
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM MDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western North Dakota

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
  1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms developing in Montana will spread into
western North Dakota through the remainder of this afternoon and
into late evening.  A mix of clusters and supercells will pose a
threat for very large hail (near the size of baseballs), significant
outflow gusts (near 75 mph), and the possibility of a tornado or two
with the strongest supercells this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northwest of
Minot ND to 15 miles west of Lemmon SD. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...WW 351...WW 352...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
33025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 2:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more86 min
Jul 8, 4:56 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn and 10 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.