Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346

July 7, 202125 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT for 25 counties in Montana. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2021, 10:50 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 25 counties

Big Horn County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Carbon County, MT, Carter County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Custer County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Park County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Stillwater County, MT, Sweet Grass County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Wheatland County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 3:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXFergus47 min
Jul 7, 3:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXJefferson, Lewis and Clark34 min
Jul 7, 4:12 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZMusselshell33 min
Jul 7, 4:43 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPark32 min
Jul 7, 5:49 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarbon, Golden Valley, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Wheatland56 min
Jul 7, 6:10 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXFergus, Judith Basin35 min
Jul 7, 6:35 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Carbon, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Stillwater, Yellowstone55 min
Jul 7, 6:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWPetroleum, Phillips39 min
Jul 7, 7:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZRosebud30 min
Jul 7, 7:24 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Musselshell, Rosebud, Treasure, Yellowstone66 min
Jul 7, 7:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Rosebud29 min
Jul 7, 7:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster52 min
Jul 7, 8:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster46 min
Jul 7, 8:23 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Rosebud52 min
Jul 7, 8:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster31 min
Jul 7, 9:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Powder River, Rosebud62 min
Jul 7, 9:19 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter56 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 42 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -61 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
42 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-360 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2232 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

401 
WWUS20 KWNS 072101
SEL6  
SPC WW 072101
MTZ000-080500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Montana

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM
  until 1100 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify within
multiple corridors across western into central Montana through late
afternoon and early evening. Severe hail will be the main concern
initially, but severe-caliber wind gust potential will likely
increase through early evening as storms tend to organize and
cluster as they move generally eastward.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Helena MT to 120 miles east northeast of Billings MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW
344...WW 345...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 6:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Garfield, Hill, Musselshell, Petroleum and 4 more95 min
Jul 6, 10:27 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCuster, Garfield, Phillips, Powder River, Rosebud93 min
Jul 7, 2:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroadwater, Cascade, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 13 more117 min
Jul 7, 5:48 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carbon, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 8 more117 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.