Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT for 25 counties in Montana. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 PM MDT (21:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 7, 2021, 10:50 PM MDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 25 counties
Big Horn County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Carbon County, MT, Carter County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Custer County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Park County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Stillwater County, MT, Sweet Grass County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Wheatland County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT
The radar
The Billings radar (KBLX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 20%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 3:13 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Fergus | 47 min |
| Jul 7, 3:26 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Jefferson, Lewis and Clark | 34 min |
| Jul 7, 4:12 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Musselshell | 33 min |
| Jul 7, 4:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Park | 32 min |
| Jul 7, 5:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Carbon, Golden Valley, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Wheatland | 56 min |
| Jul 7, 6:10 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TFX | Fergus, Judith Basin | 35 min |
| Jul 7, 6:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Big Horn, Carbon, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Stillwater, Yellowstone | 55 min |
| Jul 7, 6:44 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GGW | Petroleum, Phillips | 39 min |
| Jul 7, 7:00 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Rosebud | 30 min |
| Jul 7, 7:24 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Big Horn, Musselshell, Rosebud, Treasure, Yellowstone | 66 min |
| Jul 7, 7:31 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Custer, Rosebud | 29 min |
| Jul 7, 7:53 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Custer | 52 min |
| Jul 7, 8:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Custer | 46 min |
| Jul 7, 8:23 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Big Horn, Rosebud | 52 min |
| Jul 7, 8:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Custer | 31 min |
| Jul 7, 9:13 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Big Horn, Powder River, Rosebud | 62 min |
| Jul 7, 9:19 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Carter | 56 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 42 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -360 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2232 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 70 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
401
WWUS20 KWNS 072101
SEL6
SPC WW 072101
MTZ000-080500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Wed Jul 7 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Montana
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM
until 1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify within
multiple corridors across western into central Montana through late
afternoon and early evening. Severe hail will be the main concern
initially, but severe-caliber wind gust potential will likely
increase through early evening as storms tend to organize and
cluster as they move generally eastward.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest
of Helena MT to 120 miles east northeast of Billings MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW
344...WW 345...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...GuyerSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 6:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Fergus, Garfield, Hill, Musselshell, Petroleum and 4 more | 95 min |
| Jul 6, 10:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Custer, Garfield, Phillips, Powder River, Rosebud | 93 min |
| Jul 7, 2:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broadwater, Cascade, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 13 more | 117 min |
| Jul 7, 5:48 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Horn, Carbon, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 8 more | 117 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Montana, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.