Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1173

July 6, 20215 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 6, 2021, 10:27 PM MDT for 5 counties in Montana. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 6, 2021, 10:27 PM MDT (04:27 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2021, 12:00 AM MDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 339

Counties Custer County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Rosebud County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 20 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -5 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
20 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-155 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1401 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

835 
ACUS11 KWNS 070427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070427 
MTZ000-WYZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana and adjacent northwestern
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

Valid 070427Z - 070600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered ongoing storms are expected to begin
diminishing within the next couple of hours.  Until then, they may
continue to pose a risk for hail and locally strong surface gusts. 
A new severe weather watch does not appear necessary, but remaining
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339 could be locally extended
an hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Despite considerable stabilization of low-level lapse
rates to the lee of the northern Rockies.  Four widely scattered
supercells have been maintained along a corridor of higher
precipitable water coinciding with weak lower/mid-level warm
advection, from southeastern Saskatchewan into northwestern Wyoming.
This likely has been most prominently supported by the strong
deep-layer shear, and storm-scale dynamic forcing, but seems
unlikely to continue much beyond another hour or two due to the
stabilizing environment.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   49260962 49450859 48680761 47480643 45180440 44670595
            45540694 46430731 47940837 49260962

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 6:40 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Fergus, Garfield, Hill, Musselshell, Petroleum and 4 more95 min
Jul 7, 2:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroadwater, Cascade, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 13 more117 min
Jul 7, 3:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Horn, Broadwater, Carbon, Carter, Cascade, Chouteau and 19 more8 hr
Jul 7, 5:48 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carbon, Custer, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley and 8 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.