Mesoscale Discussion 961

Issued

Jun 13, 2021, 6:31 PM CDT (23:31 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT

In force

119 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

898 
ACUS11 KWNS 132332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132331 
OKZ000-TXZ000-140130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Areas affected...West-central to southwest Oklahoma and northwest
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132331Z - 140130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue to develop along
outflow boundaries through the late evening hours. This activity may
show periods of intensification that will pose a hail/damaging wind
threat. Due to low confidence in the coverage and duration of the
risk, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of a
remnant MCV that has lingered across southwest OK, as well as along
residual outflow boundaries and a weak confluence axis draped from
south-central to northwest OK. Although deep-layer flow is generally
weak over the region, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are
supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE outside of existing cold pools.
Little to no inhibition will continue to allow new convective
development, and recent activity has shown pulse-like behavior with
periods of strong cloud-top cooling per GOES IR imagery. This
suggests that any cell could pose at least a brief damaging
wind/hail risk. The onset of diurnal cooling after 01 UTC may limit
the propensity for new convection, but recent hi-res guidance
suggests new storms may continue to develop along a southward-moving
outflow boundary and in the vicinity of the MCV as it continues to
move into northwest TX during the overnight hours. Confidence in
this scenario is low given how poorly guidance has handled the
evolution of the MCV thus far, but the potential for at least an
isolated severe threat is noted.

..Moore/Dial.. 06/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   34449951 34799903 35259869 35719875 36229866 36379829
            36029780 35399754 34909731 34419693 34079692 33439715
            32919743 32729784 32599873 32799967 33299999 33940001
            34449951

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.