Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 871
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 7, 2021, 5:08 PM CDT for 8 counties in North Dakota; 7 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 7, 2021, 5:08 PM CDT (22:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 7, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Barnes County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Walworth County, SD
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2578 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 598 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
575
ACUS11 KWNS 072208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072208
SDZ000-NDZ000-072345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021
Areas affected...Dakotas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 072208Z - 072345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm potential is increasing across portions of
the Dakotas. Large hail and damaging wind threat may warrant a
severe thunderstorm watch in the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have soared to near 100F across
central/north-central SD this afternoon. These readings are at/above
forecast convective temperatures and recent visible satellite
imagery supports this with deepening cu field and clustering
occurring over southeast Corson County/northeast Dewey County, just
west of Mobridge. This activity is evolving along the northeastern
plume of steepest low-level lapse rates and should continue to
mature over the next few hours. These trends are in line with
earlier thinking regarding the possibility for organized convection
evolving across this region, then spreading downstream toward
southeast ND. Forecast soundings suggest hail/wind are the primary
threats. WW may be warranted to account for this scenario.
..Darrow/Thompson.. 06/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45820091 46780009 47419815 46139751 44839932 44810076
45820091SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 5:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster, Grand Forks and 11 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 7, 3:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bennett, Custer, Fall River, Haakon, Jackson, Meade and 2 more | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.