Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 859

June 6, 20214 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM CDT for 4 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM CDT (07:52 UTC)
Expired
Jun 6, 2021, 3:45 AM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 238

Counties McLean County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2021-06-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1639 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2021-06-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 11 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1639 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3032 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

608 
ACUS11 KWNS 060753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060752 
NDZ000-060845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of north central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 060752Z - 060845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather appears in the process of
diminishing across much of southwestern through central North
Dakota, and remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
238 will probably be allowed to expire as scheduled at 4 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Strongest surface gusts continue with a 40-50+ kt rear
inflow jet evident with a cluster of storms now spreading across and
east-northeast of the Devils Lake area.  Thunderstorm development
trailing to the west-southwest, across central North Dakota persists
in response to lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection.  However, warmer and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air is forecast to advect back northeastward across much
of north central North Dakota through 09-11Z, prior to the arrival
the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling associated with
the mid-level troughing crossing the northern Rockies.  As this
occurs, lingering convection is expected to continue to
diminish/shift into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239.

..Kerr.. 06/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47810150 48310040 48149952 47679921 47209995 46970105
            47010174 47810150

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 5, 9:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Benson, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn and 16 more2 hr
Jun 5, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Foster and 16 more5 hr
Jun 5, 11:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bowman, Dunn, Grant, Hettinger, McHenry and 8 more88 min
Jun 6, 1:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenson, Burleigh, Cavalier, Eddy, Emmons, Foster and 14 more113 min
Jun 6, 1:39 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenson, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 6 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.