Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 859
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM CDT for 4 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 6, 2021, 2:52 AM CDT (07:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 6, 2021, 3:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 238
Counties McLean County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Wells County, ND
The radar
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1639 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -19 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3032 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 118 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.1
The text
As transmitted.
608
ACUS11 KWNS 060753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060752
NDZ000-060845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021
Areas affected...Parts of north central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 060752Z - 060845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather appears in the process of
diminishing across much of southwestern through central North
Dakota, and remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
238 will probably be allowed to expire as scheduled at 4 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Strongest surface gusts continue with a 40-50+ kt rear
inflow jet evident with a cluster of storms now spreading across and
east-northeast of the Devils Lake area. Thunderstorm development
trailing to the west-southwest, across central North Dakota persists
in response to lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection. However, warmer and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air is forecast to advect back northeastward across much
of north central North Dakota through 09-11Z, prior to the arrival
the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling associated with
the mid-level troughing crossing the northern Rockies. As this
occurs, lingering convection is expected to continue to
diminish/shift into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239.
..Kerr.. 06/06/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47810150 48310040 48149952 47679921 47209995 46970105
47010174 47810150SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 9:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Benson, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 5, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Foster and 16 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 5, 11:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bowman, Dunn, Grant, Hettinger, McHenry and 8 more | 88 min |
| Jun 6, 1:22 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benson, Burleigh, Cavalier, Eddy, Emmons, Foster and 14 more | 113 min |
| Jun 6, 1:39 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 6 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.