Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 857

June 5, 202114 counties in North Dakota; Harding County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2021, 10:47 PM MDT for 14 counties in North Dakota; Harding County, South Dakota. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 5, 2021, 10:47 PM MDT (04:47 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2021, 12:15 AM MDT
In force: 88 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 238

Counties Adams County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Harding County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1639 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3032 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

910 
ACUS11 KWNS 060447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060447 
NDZ000-SDZ000-060615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021

Areas affected...Western/Central ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 060447Z - 060615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gust and isolated large hail
continues across much of western and central ND.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the leading edge of the
cold front from about 50 miles west-northwest of HCO southwestward
to far northwestern SD (roughly 15 miles northwest of 2WX). The
thunderstorms ongoing across west-central and northwest ND are well
behind the front, while those over southwest ND and adjacent far
northwest SD are near the leading edge of the front. Storm intensity
has increased in those storms closer to the front, suggesting the
hail potential is likely increasing across southwest ND and
south-central ND. Strong wind gusts are also expected to continue
for the next few hours as the thunderstorm outflow progress eastward
through the deeply mixed air mass across the region. Some gradual
weakening of this outflow is possible thereafter as it accelerates
out ahead of the ongoing storms.

..Mosier.. 06/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   48290216 48630190 48860123 48650062 48050041 47260056
            46840079 45830191 45540307 45610385 46280387 47130319
            48290216

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 5, 8:15 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Benson, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn and 16 more	2 hr
Jun 5, 9:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Dunn, Foster and 16 more	5 hr
Jun 6, 12:22 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Burleigh, Cavalier, Eddy, Emmons, Foster and 14 more	113 min
Jun 6, 12:39 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 6 more	3 hr
Jun 6, 1:52 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McLean, Oliver, Sheridan, Wells	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.