Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 834
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2021, 1:14 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2021, 1:14 PM MDT (19:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2021, 3:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 24 counties
Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1268 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
886
ACUS11 KWNS 011914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011914
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-012115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011914Z - 012115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally organized storms will develop along the higher
terrain, some of which will move out onto the plains. These storms
will be capable of small to marginally severe hail and
strong/damaging wind gusts. No WW is expected.
DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level vortex moving
into northeast Colorado. Widely-scattered convection has developed
along the western flank of this feature from the Cheyenne Ridge
southward across the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo. Continued surface
heating and lift from the shortwave trough will foster some
intensification of storms this afternoon. KCYS and KFTG VWP data
show around 30 kts of flow at mid-levels which should translate to
25-30 kts of effective shear. Mid-level lapse rates on the DNR/RIW
observed morning soundings showed 7-8 C/km lapse rates. Despite
limited surface moisture, this would be supportive of small to
marginally severe hail. Dry low-levels and strong heating will bring
potential for strong convectively enhanced wind gusts as well.
Activity will generally be sparse and diminish after sunset. No WW
is expected.
..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 40820498 41150405 40730336 38570243 36870221 35730226
35300284 35250446 35640489 35960503 38140453 40820498SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 6:17 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dimmit, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde and 2 more | 8 hr |
| May 31, 9:07 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Maverick, Zavala | 83 min |
| May 31, 11:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brooks, Duval, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, La Salle, McMullen and 2 more | 6 hr |
| May 31, 11:44 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, La Salle, Maverick, Zavala | 91 min |
| Jun 1, 1:50 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | La Salle, McMullen, Webb | 85 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.