Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 62
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2021, 2:13 AM EST for 20 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 7, 2021, 2:13 AM EST (07:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 7, 2021, 4:15 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 6
Counties Brevard County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Levy County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1198 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 813 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 249 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 286 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.8
- Supercell composite
- 7.7
The text
As transmitted.
930
ACUS11 KWNS 070713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070713
FLZ000-070915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021
Areas affected...Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...
Valid 070713Z - 070915Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across parts of the Florida
Peninsula over the next few hours. The stronger thunderstorms may be
accompanied by a threat for tornadoes and wind damage.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
across the northern Florida Peninsula with a moist airmass in place
to the south of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from
the front southward into central Florida. Surface dewpoints in the
60s F are contributing to moderate instability. The RAP is
estimating that MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across much
of the central Florida Peninsula. In addition, strong deep-layer
shear is present across central and northern Florida Peninsula with
the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP sampling 0-6 km shear near 50 kt. This is
accompanied by strong speed shear and some directional shear in the
boundary layer, which is contributing to 0-3 km storm relative
helicity near 350 m2/s2. This combined with increasing large-scale
ascent ahead of a shortwave trough moving through the northeast Gulf
of Mexico, will help the storms to become more organized. A tornado
threat will be possible with any supercell that can develop. Wind
damage will also be possible with any storm that can become
organized. A more substantial severe threat is expected to develop
across the central Florida Peninsula as the front continues to
advance southward.
..Broyles.. 02/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27038205 26868272 27318298 27688312 27938315 28208311
28508298 28748307 28968338 29138346 29318307 29578288
29448210 29688204 29818154 29608147 29698117 29398106
29398066 28438012 28138025 27938017 27858087 27688086
27678152 27348155 27328209 27038205SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 7:41 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Dixie, Flagler and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 6, 9:48 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake and 10 more | 87 min |
| Feb 6, 10:58 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 14 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 7, 6:28 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Hardee, Hillsborough, Lake, Manatee, Orange and 7 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.