Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 64
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2021, 6:28 AM EST for 13 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 7, 2021, 6:28 AM EST (11:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 7, 2021, 8:30 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 6
Counties Brevard County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1198 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 813 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 249 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 286 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.8
- Supercell composite
- 7.7
The text
As transmitted.
626
ACUS11 KWNS 071129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071128
FLZ000-071330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 AM CST Sun Feb 07 2021
Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...
Valid 071128Z - 071330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.
SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat may linger across parts of the
central Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. Additional
weather watch issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
southward across the north-central Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms
are ongoing along the front from Near Tampa Bay northeastward to
near Dayton Beach. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE to the south of the
front in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is
estimated to be in the 45 to 55 kt range. This should be enough to
continue a marginal severe threat over the next few hours. A few
marginally severe wind gusts could occur along the leading edge of
the stronger parts of the line. A marginal tornado threat could also
exist with cells that show rotation. However, the threat should be
too isolated to warrant the issuance of another watch.
..Broyles.. 02/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27018204 26888270 27358298 27628311 27868318 28138314
28178275 28398262 28428203 28338202 28318193 28958194
28998162 29368167 29408143 29298139 29288113 29438111
29478070 28568020 28288026 27918010 27848081 27698085
27668152 27368152 27358204 27018204SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 7:41 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Dixie, Flagler and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 6, 9:48 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake and 10 more | 87 min |
| Feb 6, 10:58 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 14 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 7, 2:13 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Citrus, Flagler, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 14 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.