Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 610
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 3:54 PM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas; Dundy County, Hitchcock County, Nebraska. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 3:54 PM CDT (20:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1079 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 492 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 552 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
696
ACUS11 KWNS 142054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142054
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-142230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...western kansas and far southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142054Z - 142230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat of damaging winds and
severe hail is expected late this afternoon and into this evening
across far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A weather watch may
be needed.
DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms ongoing east of the Denver
Metro are expected to continue eastward towards extreme eastern
Colorado and western Kansas over the next few hours. Additional
storm development in northeastern Colorado and southern Nebraska
appears likely, as lift from weak upslope flow and an upstream
shortwave trough begin to move across the High Plains. Surface
observations show increasing moisture with eastward extent across
western Kansas, where mid to upper 50s F dewpoints reside. Continued
low-level moisture advection from southeasterly winds will increase
surface dewpoints to near 60 F this evening, contributing to
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective shear of 30-40 kts should be
sufficient to organize updrafts into line segments and clusters,
with eventual upscale growth into an MCS expected. Damaging wind
gusts and severe hail appear to be the primary threats given steep
lapse-rates through the low and mid levels. A weather watch may be
needed as early as 22-23z, though some uncertainty in convective
evolution remains given the slow organization of storms thus far.
..Lyons/Kerr.. 05/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38160194 38710206 39450214 39860213 40280203 40300083
40140049 39860022 39269988 38699982 38070006 37730051
37750139 38160194SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 4:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Clark, Decatur, Finney, Ford, Gove and 25 more | 6 hr |
| May 14, 6:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny, Seward, Stanton and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.