Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 614
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 6:26 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 170
Counties Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1079 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 492 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 552 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
000
ACUS11 KWNS 142326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142326
KSZ000-150130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...southwest KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...
Valid 142326Z - 150130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) appear increasingly
likely over the next couple of hours across parts of southwest KS
(0030 to 0200 UTC). Expecting the coverage and intensity of severe
gusts to maximize during this timeframe.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of discrete storms
aligned north to south along a dryline from extreme southeast CO
southward into the western counties of the TX Panhandle. The storms
over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle are beginning to move into a
more moist environment as the activity pushes eastward. Surface
analysis shows dewpoints near 50 deg F near the CO/KS border and
into the middle 50s one tier of counties farther east (i.e., Kearny,
Grant, Stevens counties). As a result of both strong heating and
the aforementioned well mixed but adequate boundary layer moisture,
upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE is noted on modified RAP forecast
soundings (slightly more unstable than current SPC Mesoanalysis
fields). The steep low-level lapse rates and the 9 deg C/km 700-500
mb lapse rates, will enable efficient downdrafts in the form of
strong to severe gusts. Severe gusts ranging from 60-75 mph are
expected as the activity over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle
gradually moves into southwest KS during the next couple of hours.
..Smith.. 05/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38010197 38340165 38390115 38100083 37370070 37080088
37000141 37110177 38010197SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 3:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Greeley, Kearny and 11 more | 96 min |
| May 14, 4:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Clark, Decatur, Finney, Ford, Gove and 25 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.