Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 547
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2021, 6:39 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 5, 2021, 6:39 PM CDT (23:39 UTC)
- Expired
- May 5, 2021, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Harper County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Major County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1836 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 156 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
444
ACUS11 KWNS 052340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052339
OKZ000-KSZ000-060115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021
Areas affected...Southwest kansas northwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052339Z - 060115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts early this evening. Limited confidence exists on
how storms will evolve over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...As of 2320 UTC, RADAR observations showed a loosely
organized line of high-based thunderstorms near the KS/OK Border.
These storms have recently produced severe hail and wind gusts in
the vicinity of DDC. Downstream of the ongoing storms, SPC
mesoanalysis and surface observations show a relatively warm airmass
with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F. Moisture remains
limited with surface dewpoints in the 40s supporting only modest
destabilization. However, vicinity soundings show deep inverted V
profiles with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE above the steep surface
lapse rates. Given the parameter space, it appears likely these
storms will continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts
over the next couple of hours as storm outflow mergers support
greater cold pool development downstream into portions of Northwest
Oklahoma. Hi-res guidance suggests that storms will gradually begin
to weaken near sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The limited
spatial and temporal threat suggests that a watch may not be needed,
but severe trends will be monitored.
..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35689893 36109974 36489995 37020032 37429985 37639933
37639896 37429821 37249781 36969750 36569738 36339753
36109763 35849788 35729826 35689893SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 11 more | 3 hr |
| May 5, 3:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Republic, Smith and 1 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.