Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 545
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2021, 2:29 PM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Texas County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 5, 2021, 2:29 PM CDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- May 5, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Texas County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1836 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 156 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
496
ACUS11 KWNS 051929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051929
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-052200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas...extreme southeast
Colorado...Oklahoma Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051929Z - 052200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected through the
afternoon. Damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail
may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a surface cold
front across western Kansas into eastern Colorado, just south of a
CBK-GLD-ITR line, and is gradually propagating southeast. Convection
will continue to gradually deepen and intensify with continued
strong diurnal heating and associated boundary-layer mixing.
Deep-layer steep lapse rates are in place, with the latest RAP PFCs
suggesting boundary-layer mixing past 700 mb. 8-9 C/km lapse rates
are present within the lowest 2 km, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km lapse
rates in the mid levels. Relatively stronger flow aloft (i.e. 50+
kts) is contained roughly above 500 mb. Still, the presence of a
deep, dry sub-cloud layer will promote enough evaporative cooling
for efficient downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow with
any of the stronger storm cores that can develop. A brief instance
or two marginally severe hail is also possible given the steep
mid-level lapse rates.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain brief and
sparse overall. A WW issuance is not currently expected.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36470180 36890216 37340219 37830203 38290181 38510147
38720086 38650036 38450003 37959977 37389973 36889982
36639999 36500021 36470180SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 3:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Republic, Smith and 1 more | 88 min |
| May 5, 6:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Kiowa | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.