Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 54

February 2, 202111 counties in Maine; Carroll County, New Hampshire

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2021, 2:18 AM EST for 11 counties in Maine; Carroll County, New Hampshire. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2021, 2:18 AM EST (07:18 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2021, 8:15 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Heavy snow

Counties Androscoggin County, ME, Aroostook County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Waldo County, ME, Washington County, ME, Carroll County, NH

The radar

The Caribou radar (KCBW), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 00:00Z on 2021-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 00:00Z on 2021-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 307 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
554 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
307 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

644 
ACUS11 KWNS 020719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020718 
MEZ000-NHZ000-021315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Tue Feb 02 2021

Areas affected...New Hampshire...Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 020718Z - 021315Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will develop across of much of
Maine tonight with snowfall rates increasing into the 1 to 1.5 inch
per hour range.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a band of
moderate snowfall extending from west-southwest to east-northeast
from New Hampshire across far southern Maine. This band is located
along a corridor of strong isentropic ascent associated with an
upper-level low pressure system, centered over the Mid-Atlantic
according to water vapor imagery. As low-level flow increases across
northern New England tonight, moderate to heavy snow is expected to
continue developing from parts of central New Hampshire
northeastward into much of southern and central Maine. Although the
band of moderate snowfall is currently located in far southern
Maine, the heaviest snowfall should shift northeastward with time as
isentropic lift increases across south-central Maine. Snowfall rates
are forecast to gradually increase late tonight and could peak in
the 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range within the heaviest part of the
band.

..Broyles.. 02/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44406848 43987005 43707091 43607148 43737177 44117170
            45367031 45707006 46586926 46826882 46896844 46666783
            45976777 45426749 45196712 44876697 44616747 44406848

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 1, 7:27 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCYork6 hr
Feb 2, 10:52 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAroostook, Hancock, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Washington6 hr
Feb 2, 4:46 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Hancock, Kennebec, Knox and 7 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.