Mesoscale Discussion 53

Issued

Feb 1, 2021, 7:27 PM EST (00:27 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2021, 1:30 AM EST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

The Albany radar (KENX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

662 
ACUS11 KWNS 020027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020027 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-020630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Areas affected...northeastern Pennsylvania...southern New York
State...and southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 020027Z - 020630Z

SUMMARY...An extensive band of moderate to heavy snow is expected to
continue across the discussion area though the evening and overnight
hours.  Rates of up to 2 inches per hour are possible in localized
areas - particularly in central/eastern Massachusetts and southern
New Hampshire.

DISCUSSION...A persistent band of precipitation continues on the
northeastern periphery of a mid-level vorticity maximum located over
the DelMarVa.  This band has produced occasional areas of 2-4
inch-per-hour snow rates at times due to strong ascent/warm
advection in the 925-700mb layer and sub-freezing surface
temperatures (especially in inland areas).  A mix/changeover to
sleet and freezing rain has been noted across the New York City
Metro area through central Long Island, southern Rhode Island and
eastern Massachusetts where slightly warmer low-level profiles has
allowed for melting of precipitation aloft.

Over time, models and mesoanalyses indicate that the axis of lift
(and associated heavier precipitation) will lift northeastward in
tandem with northward movement of a deepening surface low south of
Long Island.  Though occasional 1-inch-per-hour rates will remain
possible across portions of southern New York through the evening,
the main focus of heavier precipitation (including 2-inch-per-hour
snowfall rates) will translate northeastward into eastern
Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire through 03-06Z.  The
transition zone between snow and freezing rain/sleet will also
migrate northward in tandem with low-level warming, across portions
of central Connecticut through far southeastern New Hampshire.

..Cook.. 02/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   43437067 43367140 43127241 42947287 42407422 41647526
            40817530 40527494 40747399 41427268 41747168 42547093
            43297046 43437067

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.