Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 473
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2021, 1:15 PM MDT for 9 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2021, 1:15 PM MDT (19:15 UTC)
- Expired
- May 2, 2021, 2:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 124
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1976 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
078
ACUS11 KWNS 021915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021915
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-022045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021
Areas affected...East-central to northeast CO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...
Valid 021915Z - 022045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe wind and marginal severe hail threat may resume
as thunderstorms spread east across the eastern CO plains.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has gradually been increasing
along and just behind an eastward-moving composite outflow/front.
The most pronounced recent development has been across Morgan to far
eastern Adams/Arapahoe Counties and separately to the southwest
within the upslope regime across western El Paso County. The
downstream air mass has warmed through the 70s and low 80s across
the eastern CO plains, but surface dew points at or above the mid
40s have become increasingly confined to along the state border with
KS/NE. The lack of greater moisture will continue to limit available
buoyancy and suggests the stronger updrafts will contain small to
perhaps marginally severe hail amid moderate effective shear from
30-35 kt. Further clustering of convection will likely be necessary
for an appreciable uptick in severe wind potential.
..Grams.. 05/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40760372 39780399 39210455 38700485 38440456 38420383
38510265 39040206 40030177 40660187 40760372SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 10:14 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 2, 11:45 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas and 10 more | 7 hr |
| May 2, 2:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Phillips and 2 more | 90 min |
| May 2, 4:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Prowers | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.