Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 478

May 2, 2021Baca County, Bent County, Prowers County, Colorado; Cimarron County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2021, 4:12 PM MDT for Baca County, Bent County, Prowers County, Colorado; Cimarron County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2021, 4:12 PM MDT (22:12 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2021, 5:45 PM MDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 124

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Cimarron County, OK

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 176 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 246 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -668 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1278 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 207 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

720 
ACUS11 KWNS 022213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022212 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern CO and the western OK
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

Valid 022212Z - 022345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind gust and marginally severe hail
threat may continue for the next hour or two across part of
southeastern Colorado. Downstream watch issuance to the south is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A high-based storm with a history of producing multiple
measured 50-53 kt wind gusts is continuing into Bent County CO as of
2210Z. The low-level airmass downstream of this ongoing convection
remains very well mixed, with surface dewpoints generally in the
upper 30s. A very deeply and well mixed boundary layer will likely
continue to support efficient downdraft accelerations at/above
severe thresholds in the short term. However, recent radar
reflectivity imagery from KPUX shows outflow has surged well ahead
of the strongest cell in Bent County, and it remains unclear how
long this storm will maintain its intensity. Other isolated cells
have developed across parts of the western OK Panhandle with a
similarly well mixed boundary layer. Occasional strong/gusty winds
approaching severe limits may also occur with these storms.
Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain too
isolated to justify downstream watch issuance to the south.

..Gleason.. 05/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37910346 38230329 38210225 37680209 37000207 36560210
            36490240 36870281 37910346

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 10:14 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver and 7 more	2 hr
May 2, 11:45 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas and 10 more	7 hr
May 2, 1:15 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Elbert, El Paso, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Morgan and 3 more	90 min
May 2, 2:45 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Crowley, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Phillips and 2 more	90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.