Mesoscale Discussion 44

Issued

Jan 30, 2021, 12:18 PM CST (18:18 UTC)

Expired

Jan 30, 2021, 2:45 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

310 
ACUS11 KWNS 301819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301818 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301818Z - 302045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A risk of isolated severe storms may develop later today
from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri.

DISCUSSION...A strong shortwave trough continues to move rapidly
east across OK, with a tight midlevel temperature gradient along
I-40. As of 18Z, a surface low was located over northwest OK, with a
bulging dryline extending into central OK and north TX.

Widespread clouds have resulted in cool temperatures east of the
dryline, but a roughly 50 mile wide band of clearing has developed
ahead of it. Dewpoints are generally in the 52-55 F range across the
warm sector, currently contributing to 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE.

Some increase in instability is expected over the next few hours as
the dryline continues east, and a warm front lifts north across
northeast OK. The most favorable thermodynamics will be over the
northeastern quarter of OK, where temperatures aloft will become
quite cold and where a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE may develop.

Strong drying aloft is also overspreading the surface layer ahead of
the surface dryline, which may minimize MLCAPE values despite better
SBCAPE. Perhaps there will be better moisture quality just ahead of
the surface low, along the KS/OK border by 21Z which will be on the
northern fringe of the midlevel dry slot. Although the stronger SRH
will shift east, hodographs will still conditionally favor
supercells, with corresponding hazards. This area will continue to
be monitored, but at this time a watch does not appear necessary.

..Jewell/Dial.. 01/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36799702 36959668 37219552 37329461 37149426 36709410
            36009446 35599491 35509549 35469628 35909698 36329716
            36799702

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.