Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 45

January 30, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 30, 2021, 2:58 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 30, 2021, 2:58 PM CST (20:58 UTC)
Expired: Jan 30, 2021, 5:00 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Benton County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Barry County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 827 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 481 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 593 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

961 
ACUS11 KWNS 302059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302058 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021

Areas affected...far northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 302058Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells remain possible over the next few hours
from northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. A tornado or two is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms persists just ahead of the surface
low, and may  produce a brief tornado or two over the next few hours
before heating is lost.

Surface analysis shows a strong dryline surge, and that temperatures
have risen into the mid 50s with the passage of the warm front. This
small corridor ahead of the surface low and reaching into southwest
MO may support a tornado threat for another 1-3 hours as large-scale
lift remains favorable, and where 0-1 SRH is in the 200-300 m2/s2
range. Loss of heating and the rapidly moving dryline will likely
end the the threat by 00Z.

..Jewell/Dial.. 01/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   35949547 36299563 36559584 36699604 36899611 37119601
            37199524 37329471 37439435 37299386 36909354 36629354
            36299400 35949547

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 30, 12:18 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Labette	2 hr
Jan 30, 5:01 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barry, Stone, Taney	59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.