Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 46
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 30, 2021, 5:01 PM CST for Barry County, Stone County, Taney County, Missouri. It was in force for 59 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 30, 2021, 5:01 PM CST (23:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 30, 2021, 6:00 PM CST
- In force
- 59 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Barry County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 827 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 481 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 593 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
016 ACUS11 KWNS 302301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302301 MOZ000-310000- Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021 Areas affected...far southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302301Z - 310000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A tornado risk will likely remain confined to developing warm-sector supercells in far southwest MO during the next 30-90 minutes. DISCUSSION...Latest surface mesoanalysis indicates surface flow has backed from south-southwesterly to southerly in Stone County per an observation site. Equally important, surface conditions show a temperature and dewpoint at 55 deg F. The cold pocket aloft associated with the migratory mid-level shortwave trough has resulted in 500 mb temperatures around -22.5 deg C. In summary, adequate buoyancy 500 J/kg MLCAPE is co-located with strong low-level shear. RAP forecast soundings estimate around 225 m2/s2 0-500m SRH. Given this seemingly focused thermodynamic/kinematic environment, it seems plausible any supercell with a relatively undisturbed inflow to the south will be capable of cyclic mesocyclones with an accompanying threat for a weak tornado or two. ..Smith.. 01/30/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 36749393 36849312 36699295 36599291 36559387 36749393
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 12:18 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McDonald, Newton | 2 hr |
| Jan 30, 2:58 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.