Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 437

April 27, 202112 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 27, 2021, 2:32 PM MDT for 12 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 27, 2021, 2:32 PM MDT (20:32 UTC)
Expired
Apr 27, 2021, 4:30 PM MDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 112

Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 2 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2021-04-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2021-04-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3214 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

742 
ACUS11 KWNS 272032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272032 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112...

Valid 272032Z - 272230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and perhaps a damaging gust or
two continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0112, and is
expected to persist through the remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular-clusters are in progress across
the western half of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0112. While MRMS
mosaic radar data has shown storms potentially producing 1+ inch
diameter hail over the past couple of hours, individual
cells/clusters have demonstrated pulse-like behavior, with
relatively short life spans. Nonetheless, storms are developing in
an ambient environment characterized by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates and over 50 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest
Mesoanalyis). The severe hail threat is expected to persist with the
more intense longer-lived storms, and a damaging gust or two cannot
be ruled out. Convective coverage may also increase somewhat as
convective outflows locally enhance low-level convergence in spots.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38990402 39350448 39930457 40580444 40870426 41000366
            41020269 40930232 40510206 40010203 39630209 39350218
            39080245 38930306 38960349 38990402

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 27, 11:15 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Elbert, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan and 5 more3 hr
Apr 27, 11:45 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Cheyenne, Douglas, Elbert, Kit Carson and 8 more7 hr
Apr 27, 4:24 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Phillips, Washington, Yuma2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.