Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 413

April 23, 202116 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 23, 2021, 7:43 PM CDT for 16 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 23, 2021, 7:43 PM CDT (00:43 UTC)
Expired
Apr 23, 2021, 9:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 100
All 23 counties

Carter County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Montague County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-04-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 486 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-04-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 345 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
486 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
504 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
345 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
408 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.2
Supercell composite
6.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

162 
ACUS11 KWNS 240044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240043 
OKZ000-TXZ000-240245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

Areas affected...Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 240043Z - 240245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue to diminish over the next
hour, but a wind/hail threat will likely persist into the late
evening hours. A new watch may be needed to address this potential.

DISCUSSION...The notable supercell with a history of producing
tornadoes and large hail along the Red River Valley has become
outflow dominant over the past 30 minutes and is growing upscale
within a cluster of new convective development. Despite this, the
evolving cluster continues to show a strong presentation in IR
imagery and resides within a favorable environment featuring
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 knots of effective bulk shear. This
should continue to support a hail and damaging wind potential for
the next 1-2 hours. Given that these storms remain along/just north
of a weak warm frontal zone where 0-1 km shear is maximized (per
recent KFDR VWP observations), a brief tornado or two will remain
possible in the near term. Continued upscale growth, along with a
gradual increase in surface-based inhibition and weakening low-level
shear in the vicinity of the surface low, should continue to reduce
the tornado potential heading into the late evening hours and favor
a wind/hail threat. A similar evolution is anticipated for a second
developing cluster of storms further upstream along the OK/TX
Panhandle border. A new watch, or a watch extension, may be
considered to address the wind/hail threat by 01 UTC.

..Moore.. 04/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34959997 34989929 34879856 34789778 34729657 34149620
            33409652 33409774 33559838 33719908 33909968 34110006
            34330019 34959997

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 23, 8:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBryan, Carter, Cotton, Jefferson, Johnston, Love and 3 more4 hr
Apr 23, 11:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha116 min
Apr 23, 7:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bexar, DeWitt, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 3 more3 hr
Apr 23, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBee, Goliad, Live Oak, Victoria2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.