Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 349

April 9, 202120 counties in North Carolina; 15 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 9, 2021, 6:23 PM EDT for 20 counties in North Carolina; 15 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 9, 2021, 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC)
Expired
Apr 9, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 78
All 35 counties

Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Brunswick County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Sussex County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-04-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 132 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-04-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 182 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
132 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
654 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

845 
ACUS11 KWNS 092223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092223 
NCZ000-VAZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern Virginia into northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78...

Valid 092223Z - 100000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #078. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the
primary threats, with severe potential likely persisting for at
least a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...Mature semi-discrete multicellular clusters and
transient supercells are straddling the VA/NC border, with MRMS
Mosaic radar data showing MESH cores within the 1-1.5 inch range
with 50 dBZ cell cores exceeding 35 kft. 20Z Mesoanalysis provided
mid-level lapse rates show a 7-8 C/km plume advecting eastward over
the Carolina Piedmont, atop widespread 8-8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates
given the presence of a dry boundary layer. The deep-layer steep
lapse rates will continue to support a large hail threat with the
more mature storms. Though the deep-layer flow below 500 mb is
relatively weak, the dry boundary layer will foster ample
microphysical cooling, with damaging outflow gusts possible. While
storm outflow will have a tendency to locally undercut storms and
reduce their longevity to a degree, the outflow will support
localized lift for the initiation of newer, intense updrafts. As
such, large hail and gusty wind threats are expected to persist for
at least a few more hours, with a gradual weakening trend expected
with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri.. 04/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36497985 36937938 36977858 36997736 37007642 36587582
            36157593 35907650 35737718 35897828 36187927 36347996
            36497985

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 9, 1:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlleghany, Ashe, Stokes, Surry, Warren, Wilkes113 min
Apr 9, 3:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Edgecombe, Franklin and 14 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.