Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 337

April 9, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 9, 2021, 2:49 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 9, 2021, 2:49 AM CDT (07:49 UTC)
Expired
Apr 9, 2021, 5:15 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Jefferson Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-04-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 44 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-04-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
44 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-210 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1605 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

340 
ACUS11 KWNS 090750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090749 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090749Z - 091015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal hail threat is expected in the central Gulf
Coast area early this morning from far southeast Louisiana eastward
across the Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over
the Mississippi Valley with an east-to-west plume of mid-level
moisture located in the central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms are
ongoing along the southern edge of this plume from just off the
coast of far southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi.
Other storms are ongoing near the Florida Panhandle to the southeast
of Panama City, Florida. The storms in the central Gulf Coast are
supported by a warm advection regime that will continue through the
remainder of the night. Moderate deep-layer shear is present with
the Mobile WSR-88D VWP showing 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This will
support both multicell and supercell development. The hodograph
suggests that left-moving storms will be possible. The shear
combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km, according
to the RAP, will be favorable for hail with the stronger updrafts.
However, any hail threat is expected to be marginal through
daybreak.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   29158875 28808920 28808967 28988997 29339015 29829009
            30378968 30628883 30778738 30798609 30738493 30518436
            30068417 29668435 29458477 29508538 29848590 30068656
            29988792 29568848 29158875

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 9, 7:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Clarke and 17 more3 hr
Apr 9, 11:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Chambers, Chilton and 28 more2 hr
Apr 9, 12:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas and 19 more7 hr
Apr 9, 5:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Greene, Lamar, Marion, Pickens, Sumter and 2 more96 min
Apr 9, 9:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBossier, Caddo116 min
Apr 9, 12:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Jackson and 5 more6 hr
Apr 9, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Bossier, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto, East Carroll and 12 more95 min
Apr 9, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClaiborne, East Carroll, Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and 2 more95 min
Apr 9, 3:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCEast Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Morehouse, Richland, Tensas and 1 more7 hr
Apr 9, 5:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto, Franklin, Grant and 10 more116 min
Apr 9, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 11 more7 hr
Apr 9, 6:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita and 2 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.