Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 311
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2021, 2:52 PM CDT for 8 counties in Alabama; Holmes County, Santa Rosa County, Florida; 16 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 31, 2021, 2:52 PM CDT (19:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 31, 2021, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 26 counties
Baldwin County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Covington County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Holmes County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Lee County, GA, Macon County, GA, Miller County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Webster County, GA
The radar
The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 49 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -76 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 885 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
475
ACUS11 KWNS 311953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311952
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021
Areas affected...southern Alabama...the northwest Florida Panhandle
into southwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311952Z - 312045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a few instances of locally strong wind
gusts and hail will persist next few hours, but confidence in a more
robust severe threat is not particularly high with southward extent
toward the Gulf Coast. Additional WW issuance will depend on
convective trends during the next hour. However, portion of WW 70
can be locally extended farther south to include the far western FL
Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...Line of thunderstorms with a few embedded organized
structures continue to move southeast through southern AL at around
15-20 kt. This line is approaching the southwestern border of ww 70
where some severe threat may persist next couple hours. Farther east
across southwest GA, the potential for a more robust severe threat
is uncertain due to presence of a warmer mid-level inversion evident
on the TLH RAOB and weaker instability with eastern extent into
southern GA. These limiting factors suggest storms might begin to
struggle as they move farther east and southeast. Latest HRRR runs
weaken storms as they cross into the FL Panhandle and this does not
seem unreasonable.
..Dial/Grams.. 03/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 32318439 32518393 32338343 31828357 31298430 30938520
30698641 30658779 30958790 31568533 32318439SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 1:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blount, Cullman, Fayette, Franklin, Lamar, Lawrence and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Choctaw and 17 more | 93 min |
| Mar 31, 11:19 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Autauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler, Chambers and 23 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 31, 2:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Crenshaw and 4 more | 90 min |
| Mar 31, 3:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Coffee, Covington, Dale, Escambia, Geneva and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 31, 4:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coffee, Dale, Houston | 115 min |
| Mar 31, 5:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Chatham, Effingham and 11 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.