Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 313

March 31, 202117 counties in Georgia; 4 counties in North Carolina; 20 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2021, 6:24 PM EDT for 17 counties in Georgia; 4 counties in North Carolina; 20 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2021, 6:24 PM EDT (22:24 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2021, 8:30 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 41 counties

Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Screven County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Horry County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Marion County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 717 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
717 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
567 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

592 
ACUS11 KWNS 312224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312224 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021

Areas affected...eastern South Carolina...southern North
Carolina...southeastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312224Z - 010030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail or wind is possible for a few hours
centered over eastern South Carolina. A watch is not expected due to
storm coverage and duration.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show outflow boundaries
progressing east/southeastward from eastern NC into central SC and
east-central GA. Cooler air with outflow-reinforced sea breeze is
also undercutting some of these storms. Scattered storms persist
ahead of these boundaries, with MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer
shear around 40 kt will likely support isolated strong or severe
cells into early evening while the air mass remains uncapped.
Effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is a bit low for supercells, but may
support weak rotation in the near term before the air mass is
overturned and temperatures cool.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   33458207 33608131 34158026 34747925 34767869 34637830
            34387815 34117813 33887830 33767865 33197910 32817956
            32528001 32068070 31638102 31248120 31218163 31478208
            32238253 32838252 33088237 33458207

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 11:57 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChattahoochee, Coweta, Fayette, Harris, Lamar, Marion and 9 more93 min
Mar 31, 3:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Crisp, Dooly, Dougherty and 10 more53 min
Mar 31, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Dougherty, Early, Lee and 4 more4 hr
Mar 31, 5:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEarly, Miller, Seminole115 min
Mar 31, 2:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Chatham and 43 more113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.