Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 286

March 27, 202127 counties in Illinois; 22 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 27, 2021, 6:16 PM CDT for 27 counties in Illinois; 22 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2021, 6:16 PM CDT (23:16 UTC)
Expired
Mar 27, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 62
All 49 counties

Bond County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Washington County, IL, Carter County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 369 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1078 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
369 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
384 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

008 
ACUS11 KWNS 272317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272316 
ILZ000-MOZ000-280045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri and Central/Southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62...

Valid 272316Z - 280045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms continue across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar depicts a couple of discrete supercells
now moving into portions of east-central Illinois. One of these
storms tracked through the St. Louis metro area, producing hail to
the size of golf balls. Another cell farther north has also produced
severe hail and a severe wind gust (53 kt) at the TAZ ASOS. These
storms are riding the northern periphery of a low-level moisture
axis characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid 50s
F yielding MUCAPE near 500-1000 J/kg amid a strongly sheared
environment (effective bulk shear near 60 kt). A downstream watch
extension has been coordinated for this area.

Farther south, a line of storms is developing along the advancing
cold front across portions of south-central Missouri, with stronger
cores embedded. These storms may continue to pose a threat for large
hail in the near term, as low-level thermodynamic conditions (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg) is conducive to sustain severe convection. With
time, the primary threat may transition to damaging winds associated
with a linear mode of convection.

..Karstens.. 03/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36599126 36749253 37459243 38959101 39938931 40038759
            39078768 37688943 36599126

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 2:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 5 more116 min
Mar 27, 4:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clark, Clinton, Coles and 21 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.