Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 273

March 26, 202150 counties in Georgia; 6 counties in North Carolina; 34 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 26, 2021, 1:56 PM EDT for 50 counties in Georgia; 6 counties in North Carolina; 34 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 26, 2021, 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC)
Expired
Mar 26, 2021, 3:30 PM EDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%
All 90 counties

Baldwin County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Butts County, GA, Candler County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Macon County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Screven County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Anson County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Aiken County, SC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Horry County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 16 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 266 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
16 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-319 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1005 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
258 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

050 
ACUS11 KWNS 261756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261756 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Areas affected...eastern Georgia into the Carolinas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261756Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential exists for a few strong/severe wind gusts or
hail with a band of storms across eastern Georgia and South Carolina
through this afternoon. A weather watch is unlikely given low storm
coverage.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, a band of convection was located along
and east of a weak cold front across central Georgia and the western
Carolinas. A mid-level trough was lifting north out of the region
over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Radar showed a few stronger
storms with tops reaching near 40k ft. Regional soundings/SPC
mesoanalysis show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg overlain by effective
shear of 40-50 kts. However, VWPs show mostly straight hodographs
supportive of a mixed mode of splitting storms and short line
segments. While there remains potential for a few damaging wind
gusts and possibly severe hail with the stronger storms, convective
coverage and intensity is not expected to increase further as lift
from the trough continues to move away to the north and east. The
result should be a few hours of low-end severe potential through
this afternoon without the need for a watch.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   33178428 33768281 34458155 34918065 35168001 35107927
            34847880 34367858 33667882 32987942 32338072 32118103
            32018145 31918221 31898288 31928335 32148397 32388420
            32378434 33178428

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 11:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoweta, Fayette, Heard64 min
Mar 26, 12:34 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarrow, Cherokee, Clarke, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta and 11 more56 min
Mar 26, 1:55 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBanks, Barrow, Butts, Clarke, Clayton, Coweta and 31 more3 hr
Mar 26, 4:21 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarrow, Clarke, Clayton, Coweta, DeKalb, Elbert and 11 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.