Mesoscale Discussion 27

Issued

Jan 25, 2021, 3:30 AM CST (09:30 UTC)

Expired

Jan 25, 2021, 5:30 AM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

086 
ACUS11 KWNS 250931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250930 
OKZ000-TXZ000-251130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK and north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250930Z - 251130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds
may continue early this morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently acquired more of a linear
structure along an eastward-moving cold front across parts of
south-central OK and north-central TX. 09Z surface observations show
low to mid 60s dewpoints have advanced as far northward as Ardmore
and Durant in southern OK. Modifying the 06Z FWD sounding for
current conditions suggests a relative minimum in MLCIN may be
present in a narrow corridor ahead of the convective line. Latest
mesoanalysis estimates also show the potential for
near-surface-based parcels for the next hour or two across a small
portion of north-central TX and south-central OK. Greater inhibition
into northeast TX/southeastern OK should limit a greater severe
threat with eastward extent.

Still, given the strong flow present in low to mid levels and storms
organizing into a line, at least some potential for strong/gusty
downdraft winds may exist in the short term. With steep mid-level
lapse rates present and strong deep-layer shear, isolated large hail
will also remain possible with any supercell structures embedded
within the line. At this time, it appears that the stronger
large-scale forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough
will remain mostly to the north of the surface warm sector.
Accordingly, a watch will probably not be needed given the small
spatial and temporal severe threat.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32459739 32029814 31859867 32009921 32789835 33649757
            34579675 34689577 34369551 33599553 33109590 32799641
            32459739

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.