Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 247

March 24, 2021Edwards County, Kimble County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 24, 2021, 10:28 PM CDT for Edwards County, Kimble County, Texas. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 24, 2021, 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC)
Expired
Mar 24, 2021, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 49

Counties Edwards County, TX, Kimble County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 479 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 13 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
479 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2767 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
317 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

346 
ACUS11 KWNS 250328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250328 
TXZ000-250430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Areas affected...parts of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

Valid 250328Z - 250430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

SUMMARY...A focused corridor for higher hail potential appears to be
maximizing over parts of the Edwards Plateau through 1100-1130pm
CDT.  Very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is possible with the
stronger supercells embedded within this thunderstorm cluster.

DISCUSSION...MRMS MESH and single site WSR-88D imagery recently
showed a very intense supercell over Kimble County, TX with hail
potentially 2-3 inches in diameter.  This storm has formed on the
southern periphery of a cluster of convection near the front draped
southwest to northeast.  Additional storm development is likely on
the southwestern flank as storms break the cap near Val Verde
County.  The latest RAP forecast sounding for Junction, TX shows
strong effective shear (55+ kt) with a 500 mb temperature at -19 deg
C---very favorable for supercell hail production.  A long hodograph
supported by 135 kt 300 mb flow (reference the 02 UTC Junction RAP
sounding) will favor ample updraft venting and hail production with
the more dominant cells over the next hour.  The very large hail
threat may gradually wane beyond 1130pm as the convective mode/cell
interference lessens the risk.

..Smith.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30200073 29730079 30409936 31049933 30200073

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 24, 7:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Collin, Cooke, Dallas and 23 more53 min
Mar 24, 8:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 29 more2 hr
Mar 24, 9:52 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 37 more6 hr
Mar 24, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Lamar, Morris, Red River, Titus53 min
Mar 24, 11:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurnet, Coryell, Lampasas, Llano, Mason, San Saba93 min
Mar 25, 1:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 40 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.