Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 244

March 24, 2021Little River County, Miller County, Sevier County, Arkansas; Bryan County, Choctaw County, McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 29 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 24, 2021, 7:37 PM CDT for Little River County, Miller County, Sevier County, Arkansas; Bryan County, Choctaw County, McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 29 counties in Texas. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 24, 2021, 7:37 PM CDT (00:37 UTC)
Expired
Mar 24, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 48
All 35 counties

Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Bryan County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-03-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 281 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-03-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 54 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
281 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1372 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
112 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

293 
ACUS11 KWNS 250037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250037 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex and far
southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

Valid 250037Z - 250130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat in the near term is across the
eastern half of WW 48 and areas downstream.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms (a few with
marginally strong supercellular structures) continues to migrate
northeastward across the eastern half of WW 48.  Hail as large as
1.75 inches in diameter was reported with one dominant cell over Van
Zandt County earlier.  Most of the severe threat exists with cells
that can acquire rotation, with pressure perturbations processes
amid weak to moderate instability fostering hail production.  These
cells are also lifting northeastward in tandem with a warm front
subjectively analyzed near the I-30 corridor in northeast Texas. 
Cells that interact favorably with this boundary will continue to
pose a hail/wind and brief tornado risk.  Furthermore, increasing
low-level flow may aid in maintenance of ongoing cells despite a
general tendency toward more elevated convection over time.  This
could maintain a hail risk just beyond the confines of WW 48 over
time.

Western portions of WW 48 (generally west of I-35) are currently
experiencing a lull in the severe weather risk.   Despite
appreciable deep shear, relatively meager mid-level lapse rates seem
to be the primary limiting factor for a more robust threat.  This
may change over the next couple of hours as ascent now approaching
the Texas Big Country/southwest Texas vicinity approaches the region
later tonight.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33849743 34029625 34199505 34129410 33619369 32919371
            32529394 32469460 32469563 32639712 32649793 33139799
            33849743

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 24, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Garland and 19 more53 min
Mar 24, 8:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 29 more2 hr
Mar 24, 9:52 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 37 more6 hr
Mar 24, 10:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Kimble62 min
Mar 24, 11:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurnet, Coryell, Lampasas, Llano, Mason, San Saba93 min
Mar 25, 1:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 40 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.