Mesoscale Discussion 2061

Issued

Dec 26, 2021, 5:26 PM CST (23:26 UTC)

Expired

Dec 26, 2021, 11:30 PM CST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

733 
ACUS11 KWNS 262326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262326 
WIZ000-MNZ000-270530-

Mesoscale Discussion 2061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

Areas affected...east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 262326Z - 270530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates of at least 1"/hr are likely to develop
this evening over east-central Minnesota, expanding across much of
northwest Wisconsin overnight. Rates near 2"/hr may briefly occur in
spots.

DISCUSSION...Warm advection just above the surface will continue to
increase across the region this evening, with moistening and
eventually saturating profiles resulting in areas of heavy snow.

Observations at 23Z indicate mainly light snow falling across
western and southern MN where the boundary layer is in the process
of saturating. Other light echoes, primarily aloft, were noted into
western WI.

Forecast model soundings from RAP and NAM indicate that the dry
layer below 700 mb will saturate around 01 or 02Z near the
Mississippi River, and around 03 or 04Z farther north into
Wisconsin, with heavy snow rates in excess of 1"/hr possible as this
occurs. Strong midlevel lift enhanced by deep-layer frontogenesis,
coupled with perhaps as much as 100 J/kg MUCAPE rooted near 700 mb
will aid snow rates. Greatest axis of lift will move northeastward
with time, and 1-2"/hr rates may occur for a brief period prior to
an abrupt end/drying from the west.

..Jewell.. 12/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44489279 45159419 45579438 46029377 46169294 46249223
            46109119 45869032 45688997 44738944 43898909 43508917
            43388967 43559036 43829079 44059151 44269231 44489279

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.