Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2060
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 26, 2021, 4:44 PM CST for 49 counties in Minnesota; 22 counties in North Dakota; Roberts County, South Dakota. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2021, 4:44 PM CST (22:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 26, 2021, 8:45 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Heavy snow
All 72 counties
Anoka County, MN, Becker County, MN, Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Clay County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Wright County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Cass County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Traill County, ND, Wells County, ND, Roberts County, SD
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 816 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 212 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 328 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
854
ACUS11 KWNS 262245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262244
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-270245-
Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021
Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into southern Minnesota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 262244Z - 270245Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches per hour are likely
this afternoon and evening as one or more snow bands become
established over eastern North Dakota into southern/central
Minnesota.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show a precipitation band
becoming established from west-central MN through southeast ND.
Surface stations and web cams under this band show poor visibility
down to 1/4 mile at times. With temperatures in the teens and
sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range, blowing snow model
probabilities are somewhat low, suggesting that these visibility
reductions can be attributed primarily to heavy snow rates. Broad
scale ascent ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave is
driving widespread precipitation while strong warm-air advection
across a baroclinic zone at around 700 mb is focusing ascent and
supporting the snow band potential. Per recent RAP soundings, this
zone of ascent is also occurring within the dendritic growth zone,
which will further support heavy snow potential.
As the wave continues to the east/northeast, this zone of stronger
mesoscale ascent should shift into east/northeast ND and northern MN
and may support one or more heavy snowfall bands. Snowfall rates
above 1 inch/hour will be common and may exceed 2 inches/hour -
especially over southern/central MN where weak instability (25-50
J/kg MUCAPE) may locally augment ascent.
..Moore.. 12/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 43749460 45079599 45979804 46529972 47040089 47990084
48550014 48069746 47239525 46339338 45269272 44469244
43749280 43749460SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 5:26 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti and 8 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.