Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1983

December 10, 202115 counties in Mississippi; 7 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 5:17 PM CST for 15 counties in Mississippi; 7 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 10, 2021, 5:17 PM CST (23:17 UTC)
Expired
Dec 10, 2021, 6:45 PM CST
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 22 counties

Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Chester County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-12-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 547 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-12-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 199 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
547 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
199 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

498 
ACUS11 KWNS 102318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102317 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-110045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and portions of southwest
Tennessee.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102317Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Watch 52 may need to be expanded eastward into northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee

DISCUSSION...Showers continue to deepen in the warm air advection
regime along and east of the Mississippi River. As they deepen, some
low-level rotation has been evident on some of the better
mini-supercell structures. Expect this threat to continue as storms
deepen further in a region of 0 to 1 km SRH around 250 m2/s2 per
KNQA VWP. Eventual severe intensity is expected out of this
activity, but timing is the primary question. If these storms
intensify in the next hour, watch 552 may need to be expanded across
the remainder of the MEG CWA. However, if the storm intensity
remains muted for the next 60 to 90 minutes, this area may be
covered by an eventual watch which will likely be needed east of
tornado watch 552.

..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35448926 35798849 35268800 34238820 33788858 33838977
            34109032 35448926

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 3:07 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCoahoma, DeSoto, Marshall, Panola, Quitman, Tate and 1 more11 hr
Dec 10, 4:45 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoahoma, DeSoto, Marshall, Panola, Quitman, Tate and 1 more90 min
Dec 10, 1:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLake2 hr
Dec 10, 5:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Hickman, Houston and 9 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.