Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1932
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 5, 2021, 6:56 PM EDT for 12 counties in Florida. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 5, 2021, 6:56 PM EDT (22:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 5, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Sarasota County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 601 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 198 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 262 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
758
ACUS11 KWNS 052257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052256
FLZ000-060200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
Areas affected...parts of central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052256Z - 060200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually produce strong to locally
damaging wind gusts as they progress along the boundary this
evening.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and radar show a boundary near a
Sarasota to Titusville line, which is slowly progressing south and
east. The air mass north of the front is much cooler and stable, but
low 70s F dewpoints are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of the front, with the stronger values near the Gulf of Mexico.
Several stronger areas of convection were noted on radar from
Sarasota to Polk Counties as of 23Z, and an isolated severe storm
cannot be ruled out through evening given persistent lift of a moist
air mass beneath strong, front-parallel flow aloft.
Storm trends will continue to be monitored through evening.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 11/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27298259 27468256 27698200 28068152 28448094 28808063
28538049 28158057 27688030 27508032 26378211 26718232
27038251 27298259SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 4:29 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Miami-Dade, Monroe | 3 hr |
| Nov 5, 10:09 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collier, Miami-Dade, Monroe | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.