Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1885
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 23, 2021, 4:48 PM CDT for Barber County, Pratt County, Rice County, Kansas; Roger Mills County, Woodward County, Oklahoma; Collingsworth County, Texas. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 23, 2021, 4:48 PM CDT (21:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 23, 2021, 6:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Barber County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rice County, KS, Roger Mills County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -390 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1740 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
605
ACUS11 KWNS 232148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232148
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-232315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Areas affected...South central KS...western OK...southeast TX
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232148Z - 232315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development possible along the dryline
the next couple of hours, with an attendant threat for isolated
large hail and/or strong outflow gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of areas of
deepening cumulus and initial orphan anvils along the dryline north
of Childress TX and southwest of Pratt KS. Surface temperatures in
the upper 80s with dewpoints of 56-60 suggest that vertical mixing
has been sufficiently deep to remove convective inhibition in a
narrow zone along the dryline, such that a storm or two may form
late this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt appear favorable for splitting
supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and/or strong
outflow gusts. The main uncertainty is storm coverage given the
lack of stronger forcing for ascent, and the onset of nocturnal
cooling and associated increases in convective inhibition. Thus, do
not anticipate the need for a watch at this point, though a widely
spaced storm or two could pose a severe threat for a couple of hours
this evening.
..Thompson.. 10/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 38229851 38399844 38409826 38289801 38039806 37679824
37169854 36629895 35789947 34819989 34770020 34920031
35180027 36709944 37619879 38229851SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2:23 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford and 7 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.