Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1884

October 23, 202113 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Missouri; Craig County, Nowata County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 23, 2021, 2:23 AM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 4 counties in Missouri; Craig County, Nowata County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 23, 2021, 2:23 AM CDT (07:23 UTC)
Expired
Oct 23, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Allen County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Newton County, MO, Craig County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 96 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1881 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

730 
ACUS11 KWNS 230724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230723 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions
of northeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230723Z - 231000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development appears
possible prior to and through daybreak, with perhaps a few storms
becoming capable of producing severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Bands of convective development with embedded
thunderstorms have gradually evolved across the region, aided by
large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection,
generally rooted above a cool/stable boundary-layer.  Further
strengthening of west-southwesterly flow (in excess of 40 kt) just
above the surface through around the 850 mb level is forecast
through 09-12Z, as a subtle mid-level perturbation digs
east-southeastward from the higher plains.  It appears that this
will be accompanied by further low-level moistening, in addition to
enlarging hodographs within the elevated storm inflow layer. 
Furthermore, model forecast soundings suggest that increasing lift
will begin to cool/destabilize an initially relatively warm/stable
layer near or below 500 mb.  As this occurs, a period of
intensifying discrete storm development appears possible, perhaps
accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail, before stronger
convection begins to consolidate and the low-level jet begins to
weaken after daybreak.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38129664 38009563 37689426 37489391 36989379 36699473
            36739592 37069729 37609735 38129664

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 23, 4:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Pratt, Rice87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.