Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 186
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 16, 2021, 6:02 PM CDT for 12 counties in Oklahoma; 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2021, 6:02 PM CDT (23:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 16, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 25 counties
Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Briscoe County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Motley County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3067 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
990
ACUS11 KWNS 162303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162302
OKZ000-TXZ000-170030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162302Z - 170030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may develop across the Texas
Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma this evening. If storms can
intensify, a risk for strong winds and large hail will be possible.
Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery showed deepening
convective towers along a dryline and south of a warm front in the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Storm initiation appears possible along
this corridor over the next few hours as inhibition is diminished
from increasing lift ahead of a compact shortwave trough ejecting
east across the Rockies, and rapid low-level theta E advection
across central Texas/Oklahoma. 22z SPC mesoanalysis/surface obs show
low 50s and upper 40s dewpoints streaming northward ahead of the
developing convection, resulting in 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt, orthogonal to the dryline, will favor
a somewhat high based supercellular mode with a risk of large hail
and damaging wind gusts.
If storms can develop, there is some uncertainty on the character of
the severe threat into south-central Oklahoma where greater moisture
and instability are likely to develop this evening. A watch may be
needed, but is conditional upon strong storm development/longevity.
..Lyons/Hart.. 03/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35559921 35569852 35219773 34639756 34269792 34139813
33879880 33639939 33389990 33310034 33240059 33420085
33680098 34270115 34520138 34790087 35339988 35559921SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 6:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Blaine, Craig, Creek, Custer and 21 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.