Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 187
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 16, 2021, 6:46 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Oklahoma; 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2021, 6:46 PM CDT (23:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 16, 2021, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 57 counties
Barber County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Harper County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Washington County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Carson County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2291 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 410 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 413 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
055
ACUS11 KWNS 162347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162346
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-170115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162346Z - 170115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms with a risk of severe hail are
expected to form within the next 1 to 2 hours and track east
northeast through this evening. A watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...2300z surface observations show a warm front extending
from a rapidly deepening surface low across the Texas panhandle
lifting northward into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Elevated updrafts across the northern Texas Panhandle have been
slowly increasing in intensity over the last hour. Elevated
thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the low along and
north for the warm front through the next couple of hours as strong
mid-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent begins to
interact with the developing storms. SPC mesoanalysis/RAP soundings
show 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE developing over the next several hours
in a strongly sheared environment across northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, and the elevated nature of the developing convection suggests
severe hail will be the primary risk factor this evening and into
the overnight hours. However, very strong low-level shear profiles
and rapid moistening may support some surface based convection
overnight. A tornado or damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. A
watch will likely be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours.
..Lyons/Hart.. 03/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36639476 36399510 35929630 35379908 35140068 35090153
35540205 36210204 36560148 37519943 37769839 37979641
37819515 37519468 36639476SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 6:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer and 6 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.