Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1747
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 14, 2021, 3:40 PM CDT for 28 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 14, 2021, 3:40 PM CDT (20:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 14, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 28 counties
Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Sumner County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1866 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 134 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
861
ACUS11 KWNS 142040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142040
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-142215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021
Areas affected...parts of southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142040Z - 142215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail are possible this
afternoon into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...An expanding/deepening CU field in the vicinity of a
southward-sagging cold front has been noted over
southwest/south-central KS over the past hour or two. Strong heating
and dewpoints in the low 60s amid steep midlevel lapse rates is
resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large-scale forcing for ascent
remains weak over the region, but weak convergence along the surface
boundary should be sufficient for a few storms to develop over the
next few hours. This area is on the southern fringes of stronger
shear, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Small, but
curved low-level hodographs, becoming straight/elongated above 3 km,
suggest splitting supercells producing large hail are possible.
Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed in the
next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38070194 38240005 38279823 38029704 37669677 37429672
37059687 36899715 36929859 36920083 36910182 37090223
37900218 38070194SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 4:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Butler, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards and 23 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.