Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1698

September 6, 20215 counties in Maine; Coos County, New Hampshire; 4 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 6, 2021, 1:40 PM EDT for 5 counties in Maine; Coos County, New Hampshire; 4 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 6, 2021, 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC)
Expired
Sep 6, 2021, 3:45 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Aroostook County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Coos County, NH, Caledonia County, VT, Essex County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT

The radar

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2021-09-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 10 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2021-09-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -38 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
627 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

265 
ACUS11 KWNS 061741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061740 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

Areas affected...Northern New Hampshire...central/northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061740Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage across parts of New Hampshire and
central/northern Maine will increase this afternoon. Isolated
damaging winds and small hail are possible. Lack of greater
destabilization will limit coverage of intense storms. No watch is
expected.

DISCUSSION...Weak convection has continued to occur within a
pre-frontal trough in central/northern Maine. As the shortwave
progresses to the northeast this afternoon, some combination of
deepening convection within the surface trough and along the
advancing cold front will lead to an increase of thunderstorm
coverage in northern New England. Cold temperatures aloft,
particularly with northward extent, should support a few marginally
intense updrafts capable of isolated damaging wind and small hail.
Greater surface heating in central and northern Maine increases the
potential for stronger convective winds to reach the surface.
Temperatures and dewpoints will be greater in coastal southern
Maine, but warmer temperatures aloft will limit updraft depth and
intensity. Weak buoyancy will limit the coverage of intense storms
enough that no watch is expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   43877239 44167250 45127238 45627186 45707174 46167074
            46896987 47286842 46826818 45986834 44906923 44357040
            43997163 43877239

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 6, 10:47 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAddison, Caledonia, Chittenden, Franklin, Grand Isle, Lamoille and 5 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.