Mesoscale Discussion 1697

Issued

Sep 6, 2021, 10:47 AM EDT (14:47 UTC)

Expired

Sep 6, 2021, 12:45 PM EDT

In force

118 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

534 
ACUS11 KWNS 061447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061447 
VTZ000-NYZ000-061645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CDT Mon Sep 06 2021

Areas affected...Northern New York into Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061447Z - 061645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Fast moving storms may produce convectively-enhanced
damaging winds and small hail. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms was moving around 35-40 kts to
the north-northeast off of Lake Ontario. A convective gust of 41 kts
was recorded at KFZY within the last hour. Other New York Mesonet
sites were showing gusts around 25-30 kts in the same vicinity.
Despite limited buoyancy and some cloud cover ahead of this activity
so far, a few of these stronger gusts are possible given the line's
speed. Continued cooling aloft and modest heating in cloud free
areas should allow some intensification of the line into the
afternoon. Based on observed regional and model forecast soundings,
the most intense storm activity will likely occur where surface
temperatures can reach the low/mid 70s F. Strong flow in the low
levels will mean damaging winds will be the primary threat. Small
hail may also occur given how cold it is aloft. Coverage of severe
storms should be limited lack of boundary-layer destabilization. No
watch is expected.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44567571 45027475 45027274 44757202 44217208 43587255
            43197304 43007491 43067607 43447624 44567571

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.