Mesoscale Discussion 1670

Issued

Sep 1, 2021, 1:51 PM EDT (17:51 UTC)

Expired

Sep 1, 2021, 3:45 PM EDT

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

60%

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

222 
ACUS11 KWNS 011752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011751 
NCZ000-011945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011751Z - 011945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts and a tornado or two this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed showers/weak thunderstorms developing ahead of a convergence
band across east central North Carolina. Clear skies to the east of
this boundary are supporting strong heating within a very moist
airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. Continued
destabilization is forecast to yield 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with
little inhibition. Model soundings also show the remnants of PTC
Ida's wind field are supporting veering wind profiles with moderate
effective SRH (100-200 m2/s2) favorable for supercells. As storms
develop this afternoon, some threat for a few strong wind gusts and
or a couple of tornadoes may evolve. However, uncertainty remains
regarding convective coverage and the duration of any severe threat
as winds aloft are forecast to trend more unidirectional with time. 

Hi-res guidance shows isolated strong/severe storms may evolve early
this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and far southern
Virginia. Tracking generally north-northeast, a few instances of
strong wind gusts or a brief tornado or two will remain possible
especially with any supercells. Conditions are being monitored for a
possible weather watch.

..Lyons/Grams.. 09/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34377735 34177767 34407816 34907866 35617847 36277823
            36427804 36447738 36367600 36107566 35937554 35257550
            34937618 34647635 34527694 34377735

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.