Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1659

August 31, 2021Henry County, Alabama; 48 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 31, 2021, 7:44 AM CDT for Henry County, Alabama; 48 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2021, 7:44 AM CDT (12:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 31, 2021, 9:45 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%
All 49 counties

Henry County, AL, Barrow County, GA, Butts County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hall County, GA, Harris County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walton County, GA, Webster County, GA, White County, GA

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 14 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 209 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 283 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
209 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
283 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

439 
ACUS11 KWNS 311244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311244 
GAZ000-ALZ000-311445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

Areas affected...Extreme southeast AL into western and northern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311244Z - 311445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes may increase by
mid-late morning with modest destabilization, and a tornado watch
may need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The primary confluence band, east of the remnants of
Ida, continues to move eastward from AL into western GA this
morning.  Weak rotation has been noted the past few hours with
embedded/weak supercell structure.  However, once temperatures warm
into the upper 70s (per the 12z FFC sounding), there will be an
increased in surface-based CAPE and a reduction in near-surface
convective inhibition.  Given the continued presence of 250-300
m2/s2 effective SRH along the confluence band, destabilization near
the surface may promote an increase in the threat for a couple of
tornadoes.  This area will be monitored closely for any increase in
tornado threat, and the potential for a tornado watch by mid-late
morning.

..Thompson.. 08/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   33138359 31468439 31368523 31798528 32938493 34118470
            34728463 34898436 34778383 34268345 33138359

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 4:31 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBullock, Chambers, Cleburne, Crenshaw, Lee, Macon and 4 more89 min
Aug 31, 3:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeneva, Henry, Houston, Russell116 min
Aug 31, 6:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDale, Geneva, Henry, Houston91 min
Aug 31, 1:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Barrow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clarke and 47 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.